Ukraine in Transition and Western Strategy

Roundtable 2, April 23-24, 1998; Washington, DC

Agenda Participants Summary

25.04.1998 · Improving Responsiveness

Introductory Papers

Geopolitics and Western Interests. US and European Responses to Ukraine's transition.
By Alexander Rahr, German Society for Foreign Affairs
Out of control, corruption, standstill privatization and reform, a severe economic depression and a practically non-existent legal system have led some analysts to believe that the Ukraine is at the brink of collapse. In light of this grim outlook, Alexander Rahr carefully examines how the socio-economic and domestic political situations have affected Ukrainian foreign policy and Western strategies towards Ukraine. Rahr also explains the dilemma the relatively successful Ukrainian western policy now faces between orientating itself towards a receptive NATO/EU and its role in the CIS. To conclude, Rahr offers a "new agenda" for EU- Ukraine cooperation in order to stabilize Ukraine, push forward reforms, and ensure European security.

Ukraine, Europe and the US: A Collaborative Strategy for Economic Recovery
By John E. Tedstrom, RAND
Mr. John Tedstrom sees the Ukraine as a potential critical and organic part of Europe in the foreseeable future. With such a view, he then outlines an economic recovery plan for Ukraine, in which Europe, the US, the EU and NATO must play a vital role. However, as of mid-1998 Ukraine stands as one of the most over-regulated, least privatized and most corrupt economies in its region and therefore President Kuchma and the Ukrainian government must take bold steps to address these serious problems. Unlike many other analysts, Mr. Tedstrom does not see the recent Parliamentary elections as a blow against such reforms and concludes by offering a "Ukrainian-US-European Agenda for Reform".

Ukraine's Transition and Western Strategies
By Olexandr Pavliuk, Kiev Institute for EastWest Studies, Kiev
According to Olexandr Pavliuk, since Ukraine became independent back in 1991, there have been ups and downs both in the process of its complex transition and in its relations with the West. There has also been an intrinsic link between the pace and dynamics of Ukrainian reforms and Western policies towards Ukraine. Olexandr Pavliuk traces these ups and downs and provides an in-depth analysis of Ukraine's current economical and political situation with emphasis on the influence of the west. To conclude, he offers a comprehensive Western strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine.

Participants' Papers (selection)

How to strengthen Ukraine: Recent Election Outcome Implies a New Strategy Towards Kyiv.
By Joachim Weidemann, Handelsblatt
Taking into account the fragile political, social and economic situation in Ukraine that has resulted from recent elections, the deepening economic crisis, and worsening living conditions for the majority of Ukrainians, Joachim Weidemann puts forth possible strategies for the EU and the US in order to encourage Ukraine's international integration and economic reforms. He foresees a joint EU-US approach, a "Ukrainian Marshall Fund of the EU and US" to replace the competing rather than coordinating efforts of USAID and TACIS, as the most important step. He believes the West must also search for new methods, partners and projects and just as importantly, make its programs more transparent as a way to fight the much criticized corruption in Ukraine.

Ukraine's place in Europe- a Central-European approach
By Zsuzsa Ludvig, Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
While almost all of the Central-European countries have proclaimed themselves as "bridges" between East and West only the Ukraine, as a result of her geopolitical position, can justify such claims. Zsuzsa Ludvig, in this contribution, attempts to show Ukraine's successful and failed attempts to integrate herself into Central Europe while at the same time maintaining relations with Russia. Through an economic and political analysis, Ludvig explains why such an integration of the Ukraine through Central-Europe remains a realistic and desirable option. However, before such a process can take place, Ludvig points out that the West must decide whether to continue providing the Ukraine with aid and the EU specifically must determine its relationship with countries being left out of the enlargement process.

Poland as Ukraine's "Gateway to Europe"
By Hanna Dumala, International Relations Department, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, Poland
As two countries between powerful neighbors, Poland and Ukraine constitute a significant axis in Europe's geopolitical landscape. Based on this analysis, Hanna Dumala, from an insider's perspective, explains how Poland can contribute to the stability of an independent and democratic Ukraine, which she believes is one of the most important factors in the European balance of power and security. Cultural similarities, historical interdependence and economic realities all play a role in why Poland is Ukraine's "Gateway to Europe" and why Ukraine should be the West's "Gateway to the East".

Key Issues of Ukrainian Transformation, Economic Transition and the Role of the State
By Thomas Faßbender, Asea Brown Boveri-Trafo BB GmbH
As a result of two key mistakes, Dr. Thomas Faßbender sees Ukraine stuck in a dead end. The first mistake was believing that as a result of her geographical position between the West and Russia, the West would bail Ukraine out, no matter what the situation. The second mistake made by the Ukraine was allowing Russia to take the lead in economic reforms that are so crucial for all of the former USSR countries' future wealth and power. Dr. Faßbender sees the country's present misery as well as her future dangers all related to one or both of these mistakes and in this context offers a possible policy strategy for the future.

On the Cusp of Reform? Questions for the Future of Ukraine.
By Jack Heller, Heller and Rosenblatt
Acknowledging that despite significant achievements by the Kuchma Administration, the need for change and reform in Ukraine continues to reach into virtually all aspects of governance, policy, law, commerce and industry, Mr. Jack Heller develops a discussion based on three questions: First, how long can Ukraine's democracy survive the persisting failure to modernize the economy; secondly, can Ukraine overcome the political deadlock which has frustrated essential reforms and lastly, what can usefully be done by the West to encourage the acceleration of reform.

Ukraine - More Differentiation required from the West
By Iris Kempe, Center for Applied Policy Research
In order to consolidate newly won state sovereignty, Ukrainian decision makers are faced with three problems: social and economic ties to Russia, the domestic transition from authoritarian rule to democracy, market economy and welfare state, and the establishment of international relations with European and transatlantic actors. Dr. Iris Kempe explains how these three tasks are not one dimensional but instead interdependent and have a great impact on the west. She suggests further that while recognizing this, Western decision makers must also differentiate their strategies towards Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the other former Soviet republics. Dr. Kempe also explains that an EU offer of associated country status to Ukraine with the potential for future membership is an example of a strategy.

Comments

Richard W. Murphy, Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Executive Director, American- Ukrainian Advisory Committee