The Research Group on the Global Future's e-mail newsletter
02.08.1999 · Research Group on the Global Future
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Research Group on the Global Future
Center for Applied Policy Research (CAP)
"You cannot fight the future. Time is on our side."
(1) Info War
(2) Life After Silicon
(3) Noted in Passing
(1) INFO WAR
Read our latest book review:
Ars Electronica 98
By Gerfried Stocker and Christine Schoepf (eds.)
Reviewed by Christina Teuthorn.
Here are an even dozen additional windows into the future of warfare.
The RAND strategists' classic:
*Arquilla, John and Ronfeldt, David (1993): Cyberwar is coming! (originally published in: Comparative Strategy 12/2, pp. 141-165)
*Arquilla and Ronfeldt (1997): In Athena's Camp. Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age.
Overviews and Introductions:
*Haeni, Reto (1997): An Introduction to Information
Warfare. The George Washington University, Cyberspace
*Electronic Privacy Information Center: Critical
Infrastructure Protection and the Endangerment of
*Swett, Charles (1997): Strategic Assessment. The Internet. - The paper reviews the actual and potential impact of the Internet on domestic and foreign politics and international conflict, from the point of view of a US Department of Defense analyst
*Ars Electronica's Infowar Special:
*The Information Security Portal
* The Federation of American Scientists - Information
Warfare on the Web clearinghouse
*Institute for the Advanced Study of Information Warfare (IASIW) - This virtual nongovernmental organization aims to facilitate an understanding of information warfare with reference to both military and civilian life.
*Guide to cyberwar-links
*Telepolis Special on InfoWar (German), some articles in
*Smith, George (1998): An Electronic Pearl Harbor? Not
Likely. In: Issues in Science and Technology - How
vulnerable is our interlinked infrastructure?
(2) LIFE AFTER SILICON
Refinements to silicon chips have kept the information technology business fulfilling Moore's Law for the last thirty years. But as circuits shrink, fundamental physical properties such as the size of silicon atoms may keep processing power from doubling every eighteen months, as the Law asserts. Keeping the digital revolution going will require looking to non-silicon alternatives, from quantum computing to computational DNA.
In a New York Times article from July 19 ("Chip Designers Search for Life After Silicon), John Markoff looks at several approaches:
In corporate and academic labs, researchers appear to be at or near breakthroughs that could vastly raise the power and ubiquity of the machines that have insinuated themselves into almost every facet of modern society.
And since many of these efforts, like the Hewlett-UCLA research, are focused at the microscopic level, computing could become an increasingly invisible part of everyday life.
"A lot of exciting stuff is happening outside the mainstream PC market," Marc Snir, a senior research manager at IBM Corp., said. "We are entering a world where there will be billions of small devices spread everywhere." ...
The really significant implication of [recent work] is that for the first time researchers have built molecular-scale computing components using chemistry rather than the time-honored technology of photolithography, the ultraviolet-light etching of circuitry onto silicon that is the process for making today's chips. The chip industry has not yet reached the theoretical limits of photolithography, but the day may come when it is no longer possible to etch circuits any closer together. That is where molecular chemistry could take over -- and possibly wring more computing power from a single chip than exists today in the biggest, fastest supercomputers.
Read the whole article at http://www.nytimes.com
(3) NOTED IN PASSING
Trend alert from Nua (www.nua.ie):
The European Internet Report reviews leading Internet companies across 12 industry sectors and provides an in-depth look at trends related to the European Internet. The 362-page report profiles large-cap Internet stocks, developing Internet stories and smaller pure plays. Some great information there.
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Douglas Merrill, Patrick Meyer, Jürgen Turek
Research Group on the Global Future
Center for Applied Policy Research
Geschwister Scholl Institute
Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich